The OECD recently released their mid-year Economic Outlook for the world economy and ARI’s Global Research & Insights team have shared some of their key takeaways and watch outs for the travel retail forecast. Overall, while the broader economic picture is more cautious, the travel retail sector continues to show resilience.

The global outlook is becoming “increasingly challenging”, with worldwide GDP growth now projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026. However, the research had some particularly interesting findings for Ireland.

The OECD points to a rebound in Irish consumer spending in early 2025, although it warns that tariff-related uncertainties will weigh on consumer confidence going forward.

Despite this, Ireland is forecast to be the fastest-growing OECD economy in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 3.7%. This robust performance, driven by strong exports in pharmaceuticals and technology, underpins a positive outlook for ARI’s home market. Increased consumer confidence and travel activity are expected to support continued growth across our Irish retail locations.

When it comes to travel, other core inbound tourism markets for Ireland, including the UK, Germany, and France are expected to see slower growth over the next two years. While the UK is forecast to grow by 1.3% in 2025, Germany and France will see more subdued growth.

The euro area is set for a modest recovery, with growth rising from 1.0% in 2025 to 1.2% by 2026, and indicating stable footfall and spend.

While we expect to face headwinds in the second half of 2025, with uncertainty around growing geo-political unrest and the looming question mark on tariffs, travel retail is so far remaining resilient. Modest growth underpins the importance of remaining agile and adapting to changing consumer patterns.